Data on Oil and Gas in Africa

This chart shows the amount of oil and gas expected to be produced from projects that have yet to reach a final investment decision (FID) as of April 2025. First and third are Mozambique and Namibia. Both countries are relatively new frontiers for the oil and gas industry.

While Mozambique has produced small quantities of gas since the early 2000s, the discovery in 2009 of large amounts of gas in the Rovuma Basin, in the northern offshore of the country, has attracted international oil companies including ENI, TotalEnergies, and Exxon.

However, ongoing conflict in the country has slowed development, keeping the vast gas reserves undeveloped. Namibia has made large oil discoveries in recent years in the Orange Basin offshore, but has yet to see a single drop of oil produced. There is also aggressive exploration onshore, including in the Okavango Basin.

This chart shows projected total oil and gas production for Africa through 2050. Despite considerable investments in new supply, overall oil production is set to decline significantly over the period.

However, gas production is expected to increase. Neither trajectory is aligned with the substantial phase out of fossil fuel production required to maintain a stable climate.

As seen in the chart above, African oil production is in decline. The established producers, including Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, and Libya, face long-term decline, while several small players combined in the ‘Rest of Africa’ are on the rise.

These include Uganda, Senegal, and Niger, among others. Namibia, shown in pink, is clearly the most significant projected new oil producer. Its oil production is expected to start in 2030.

African gas production is expected to increase. Established producers such as Algeria, Nigeria, and Egypt are in decline. Growth is expected in Mozambique, Tanzania, South Africa, and many much smaller producers that make up the ‘Rest of Africa’.

African companies, mostly state-owned, own 64% of the projected oil and gas production in currently producing projects. However, this is set to dramatically change with projects under construction and those yet to reach a final investment decision.

With an increasing proportion of new production in technically challenging offshore locations, and in frontier countries with little or no oil and gas experience, African ownership of oil and gas in these new projects falls to 32-33%. European companies dominate this new production with 36%. Asian, North American, and Middle Eastern companies also increase their shares.

Italy’s ENI and France’s TotalEnergies are projected to own the largest share of oil and gas production from projects yet to FID. Shell and Exxon are 4th and 5th. Algeria’s Sonatrach is third. Of the top 20, only 6 companies are African.

Nigerian oil and gas production is in decline. It could be around 60% below 2025 levels by 2050. However, as outlined in Figure 1, to maintain even these levels, significant new resources will be opened up.

This decline brings into stark relief the failure of the industry and the state to use the revenues generated from oil and gas to support development in the Niger Delta and the country. With the industry’s decline, will the state use remaining revenues to support a transition from oil and gas?

Senegal produced its first oil in 2024. But production is expected to peak in 2025. Despite expectations that additional phases of the Sangomar oil project will go ahead, as well as other smaller projects, production levels are not expected to return to the current level.

Senegal risks permanent damage to its delta ecosystems and marine resources for a fleeting moment of riches.